LOSSES BECOME INCREASINGLY SEVERE! US PASS ON the RISK of debt default to 16 nations.|AsianQuicktake
The US authorities recently signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act, effectively averting a catastrophic blow to the US economy and financial system. The act, which suspended the debt ceiling for 19 months, brought an end to a six-month-long struggle.
However, concerns loom over the current credit crunch storm and the impending US banking crisis, leaving Wall Street in a state of unease. Noted economist Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the sub-prime crisis, warned that the crisis could worsen after the US debt ceiling deal was passed. He expressed apprehension about the future of the US dollar and US debt.
Roubini emphasized that the debt ceiling standoff has not only damaged the US’s credit but has also had a profound impact on the dollar and US debt. It has eroded confidence among US creditors regarding its ability to repay debts and has accelerated the global de-dollarization process.
Meanwhile, a report by Goldman Sachs released on June 5th warned that the US financial markets are likely to face an even larger credit crunch storm in the coming weeks. This is due to the massive issuance of bonds by the US Treasury to replenish its funds while the Federal Reserve continues to shrink its balance sheet. These factors could spell trouble for the US banking sector and businesses.
Citi, in its June 5th report, estimated that the substantial liquidity draw by the US Treasury would trigger significant shocks in US financial markets and US debt, further eroding investor trust in the US banking system.
Data released by the US Treasury on June 2nd showed that its cash balance had fallen to just US$22.8 billion as of May 31st, reaching its lowest level since October 2015. This indicates that the US Treasury is on the brink of running out of funds and urgently needs creditors to step in.
J.P. Morgan expects the Treasury to issue $1.6 trillion in new debt to balance spending and repay related debt payments. However, this pump-priming effect could further destabilize the already precarious US banking sector, pushing the US closer to a recession and potentially more bank failures. This would further damage the financial reputation of US debt and the standing of the US dollar.
Global central banks, which have been key holders of US debt, are increasingly moving away from or reducing their investments in US Treasuries, posing a threat to the US Ponzi scheme.
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