RUSSIA PREPARING FOR WINTER MILITARY CAMPAIGN IN UKRAINE

On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree regarding a partial mobilization in the country. It concerns citizens who are currently in reserve, who have served in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces, have needed military specialties and relevant military experience. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that 300 thousand people should be mobilized, which is only about 1% of the country’s mobilization resource. According to the Defense minister, the purpose of the partial mobilization is military consolidation in the occupied territories and control over them. The newly mobilized citizens will sign contracts with the Army, i.e. they will receive a monetary reward as contract servicemen who are already taking part in the military operations. Financial compensation for military service in the combat operation zone is about $2,000 per month. Funds to assure these operations will be provided by the extra revenues that Russia got thanks to Western sanctions. For months, information has been circulating that North Korea is negotiating with Russia to provide a limited military contingent to take part in military operations in Ukraine. Pyongyang has a large motivated army, but it has no combat experience. The participation of Korean servicemen in the war on foreign territory would increase the combat readiness of the Korean People’s Army. The timing of the partial mobilization in Russia was due not so much to the recent forced withdrawal of Russian troops from the Kharkiv region in Ukraine, but rather by operational and strategic considerations based on the climate of the region. According to various estimates, it will take about 2 months from the moment of the announcement of mobilization to deploy the newly mobilized citizens on the Ukrainian front lines. From October to December, any offensive operations in the region will be complicated by the autumn weather. Accordingly, Ukraine only has a few weeks left to change the situation at the front. In several months, a winter offensive of Russian troops should be expected. Marshal Time and General Frost are again serving interests of the Russian army. Meanwhile, Russian missiles continue striking military and energy infrastructure in Ukraine. By winter, a socio-economic collapse is expected in the country. This will lead to difficulties in the administrative management in various regions. At the same time, the socio-economic situation will continue to deteriorate in the EU. Inflation in the euro zone will intensify, which will in turn lead to a further decrease in disposable income of the population. Protests on the streets of European cities are likely to intensify. The current policy of external sustainment of Ukraine will lose popularity among the population. Russia is also facing difficult times. In turn, the United States will gain a tactical benefice of the situation in the European region. However, through the lens of Washington’s strategic confrontation with Beijing, the current situation plays in favor of China.