NATO is Finished If It Makes This Move and Putin Is Ready
NATO is Finished If It Makes This Move and Putin Is Ready
Scenarios and dates for Moscow’s potential war goals in Europe are like a Tetris game of alliance planning.
Welcome everyone, in today’s video; we’re going to tell you NATO’s Confusion Over the Russia Threat
In Europe, hardly a week goes by without another sharp warning about the growing possibility of a Russian strike on a European Union member, particularly if Ukraine loses the conflict. “We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,“ German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told the Tages Spiegel newspaper in January.
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NATO is Finished If It Makes This Move and Putin Is Ready
He had cautioned Germany two months ago that it needed to be “capable of fighting a war.“ Swedish commander-in-chief Gen. Micael Bydén advised Swedes to “prepare for war,“ while the leader of the British Army warned Britons that they are part of a “prewar generation“ that may have to confront Russia in the near future. The worry was exacerbated by potential Republican presidential contender Donald Trump, who told a campaign gathering that he would “encourage“ the Russians “to do whatever the hell they want“ to any European NATO member that did not pay enough on defense.
These assertions are frequently followed by a number of estimates about how quickly Russia can re-establish forces and equipment lost in Ukraine in order to strike a NATO country. Pistorius believes it will take “five to eight years,“ although the outgoing head of Estonian military intelligence predicted that Russia may be ready for war again in four years. According to Denmark’s defense minister, it is not impossible that Russia will put Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity to the test within the next three to five years. Poland’s national security service says Russia could strike NATO within three years.
These public declarations are intended to prod Europe into action in terms of its capabilities to defend itself against potential armed aggression and to maintain deterrence. They are having an effect. More than 80% of Germans, for example, now support arming up after decades of neglecting their military.
But all of these warnings to prepare for a possible confrontation with Russia raise the question: what precisely is Russia preparing for? And, in turn, what should Europe do to prepare for these contingencies?
In the event of a future conventional battle with Russia, NATO’s top priority will be the defense of the Baltic countries that border Russia directly: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The bloc’s war planners foresee a variety of scenarios: Russian forces could overrun the Baltics in a full-fledged invasion, or they could occupy smaller chunks of territory to test and undermine NATO’s willingness to defend a small frontier state against a nuclear-armed Russia—especially if it is unclear whether the US is still committed to defending Europe. To make planning more difficult, a Russian campaign could include a combination of conventional attacks, nuclear threats to deter NATO from assisting the attacked country, and unconventional measures such as cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage in various NATO members to undermine the alliance’s resolve.
NATO military planners have considered how Russia could attack or occupy the Suwalki Gap, a geographic corridor along the Lithuanian-Polish border that stretches approximately 100 kilometers between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea. In the case of conflict, Russian soldiers may capture this length of land, isolating Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from the rest of NATO. Such a conventional military manoeuvre may be bolstered by “active measures“ that incite discontent among ethnic Russians in the Baltics, further undermining NATO’s influence in the region.
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