Excess deaths in all age groups

Excess deaths, different countries and different age groups In 2022 144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September (and were registered by 30 November), which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average (compared to 2015-2019) Same period 8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor Non covid excess deaths = 11,826 Week ending 30 December 2022 (Week 52) 9,517 deaths were registered in England and Wales (393 mentioned “novel coronavirus, COVID-19) The number of deaths was above the five-year average Private homes, 36.9% above, (684 excess deaths) Hospitals, 14.8% above, (537 excess deaths) Care homes 20.4% above, (371 excess deaths) Other settings 0.2% above, (1 excess death) Total excess deaths, week 52 = 1,593 Percentage change compared to 5-year average (2016 to 2019 and 2021) for week 52 20.1% Week ending 23rd December England and Wales, (week 51) All-cause deaths registered 14,530 (COVID-19 accounted for 429, 3.0%) Number of deaths was above the five-year average Private homes (37.5% above, 1,120 excess deaths) Hospitals (18.8% above, 1,031 excess deaths) Care homes (10.5% above; 282 excess deaths) Other settings (7.0% above, 61 excess deaths) in Week 51 in England and Wales. Total excess deaths, week 51 = 2,492 Excess deaths in all UK age groups Data goes up to 18th November 2022 Investigating cause of excess deaths In 1965, English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill Causal relationships Strength The larger the association, the more likely that it is causal Consistency, (reproducibility) Consistent findings, different persons in different places Specificity No other likely explanation Temporality The effect has to occur after the cause (often with a delay) Biological gradient, (dose response relationship) Greater exposure should lead to greater incidence of the effect (or indeed lower incident of effect) Plausibility A plausible mechanism between cause and effect Coherence Between epidemiological and laboratory findings Experiment Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence Analogy Analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations Reversibility May work if there is no permanent damage