Could a Samurai with Katana Beat a Musketeer with Rapier?

This is a “what if“ duel that was historically possible, and it’s essentially a match of polar opposites. The rapier has superior reach and quick, agile thrusts, while the katana delivers more powerful cuts and has the upper hand at close distance. Overall quite a high-risk fight.. assuming an unarmored duel. A battlefield scenario or an unexpected self-defense encounter on the street would be a different story. What are the strengths and weaknesses of each, and what would happen if the fighters swapped swords? Lots to cover, so let’s delve right in! The reproductions shown here: Shirasaya katana by Hanwei Tizona - 17th century Spanish cup-hilt rapier by LK Chen Saxony German rapier by LK Chen