How lies destroy armies - Lies, coverups, and Russian failures in Ukraine

Sign up to Morning Brew for free today: Sponsored by Morning Brew A note on враньё “Vranyo“ : In this video I use the term “Vranyo“ to describe a particular pattern or type of lying. Consulting with many Russian speakers in preparation for this segment, i got many conflicting definitions of враньё with some suggesting it was derogatory, others that there was no difference between it and ложь, while others said it was the perfect term for the phenomenon described. In the end I have used it because it is a neat term to describe a complex practice/phenomenon, but understand that it is being used as a label, not as an unambiguous code word for these practices of collective, knowing deception. Description: The performance of a military system is about more than the sum of its equipment, manpower, and training. Culture and practices are critical. The Russian army appears to suffer from serious cultural issues. Corruption is a key one, while the practice of making up obvious lies to cover up the real state of affairs (which everyone then goes along with) and telling the boss what they want to hear at all costs - those practices enable corruption to thrive, and seriously undermine battlefield decision making. In this episode, we look at the culture of deception in the Russian army, explore some of the common complaints, and discuss some ways it may (I am not a Kremlinologist) potentially impact or have impacted Russian decision making in Ukraine. Patreon: Caveats: As noted below in sourcing, the existence of “Vranyo“ is a cultural phenomenon that is hard to measure. While we can find evidence of it at a macro level, attestations for its prevalence are based on interviews, anecdotes, and complaints from former conscripts, serving personnel, and ordinary Russians. As such this video should be taken as describing a phenomenon and some of the damage it can cause - but I do not make any assertion over exactly how widespread it is. I also stress that this sort of lying appears in many organisations where people are encouraged ’to ’tell the boss what they want to hear’ I am also not a Kremlin whisperer - so my discussion of how Vranyo at that level is obviously purely hypothetical. Sources and extra reading: The Russian Way of War - Force Structure, Tactics, and Modernisation of the Russian Ground Forces (Foreign Military Studies Office, Fort Leavenworth) spots/documents/russia/ Opposing force tactics, TC 7-100.2 Composite credits to the work of translators of Russian commentary like Dmitri of Wartranslated TASS on Fake News Laws Translation of alleged letter by the 155th regarding the incompetence and deception of Rustam Muradov Russian Denial of the above Discussion of the alleged purge of the FSB 5th Service: Kadyrov threatens to brief Putin Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Opening Words 00:01:31 — What Am I Talking About? 00:02:12 — SPONSOR: MORNING BREW 00:03:21 — “Vranyo“ - A Culture of Lies 00:03:33 — What’s in a Word 00:05:02 — Rejecting Reality & Substituting Your Own 00:06:33 — History & Collective Participation 00:08:46 — Stocks vs Soldiers 00:09:07 — Motivation 00:10:16 — Involuntary Participation 00:12:55 — Compounding Falsehood 00:14:42 — Militaries as Networked Systems 00:15:03 — War is not an RTS 00:16:37 — Information Flow Enables Decision Making 00:17:46 — Why is the Russian Army so Vulnerable 00:18:02 — The RUssian Way of War 00:18:38 — War as an Equation 00:20:38 — Forces and Means 00:23:33 — Echelonment (aka Leming Attacks) 00:26:06 — Rigidity and Commander Centric Decision Making 00:28:46 – Objective: Fortressgrad 00:30:25 — The Assault on Fortressgrad 00:31:46 — Start at the Bottom 00:33:35 — The Officers Get Involved 00:35:14 — A Fine Airforce Showing 00:36:08 — Garbage In... 00:38:17 — ...Garbage Out 00:40:52 — Smile For the Cameras 00:41:31 — A Doomed Venture 00:42:23 — Pervasive Complaints 00:45:23 — Vranyo All the Way to the Top 00:46:46 — Understanding Ukraine 00:50:07 — Understanding The Russian Army 00:52:12 — Understanding the Russian Economy & the West 00:53:55 — Understanding Progress 00:54:55 — Tragic Results 00:58:02 — Can You Fix It? 00:58:34 — Failure-Safe Systems 01:00:07 — Trust But Verify 01:01:04 — Entrenched Culture 01:02:16 — Conclusions 01:03:51 — Channel Update